As political analyst Oh Ei Sun aptly observed, “Most by-elections are referendums of some sort. Each side wants to show that they still have the support of the people.” This insight rings particularly true for Sungai Bakap, a region that embodies the complexities and challenges facing Anwar Ibrahim’s administration.
Far from being a mere local contest, this by-election in Sungai Bakap represents a pivotal gauge of public sentiment towards Anwar Ibrahim’s leadership and Malaysia’s trajectory on the issues at play, including the government’s stance on Israel and Palestine, the drop in Malaysia’s competitiveness index, rising cost of living, and unfulfilled reform promises.
Demographics and Historical Context
Sungai Bakap, in Penang, is a microcosm of Malaysia’s diverse society. The town’s demographic makeup reflects Malaysia’s greater population, with a Malay majority (59.36%) alongside substantial Chinese (22.54%) and Indian (17.39%) presence. Sungai Bakap’s emergence as a PKR stronghold since 2008 signifies the ability of diverse communities to unite behind a common cause. Likely, this unity stems from a shared desire for reformasi (reform). The PKR, a party advocating for progressive policies, has resonated with voters from various ethnicities in Sungai Bakap.
In a surprising turn of events during the state elections of 2023, PAS, a conservative Islamic party, captured the Sungai Bakap seat from PKR. This shift sets the stage for a highly significant by-election, poised to redefine the political dynamics of the region.. The upcoming by-election presents a crucial opportunity to gauge the evolving political dynamics of the region.
As a partner in the unity government, UMNO’s support for PKR and Pakatan Harapan is expected. However, the effectiveness of this alliance remains uncertain. UMNO faces the challenge of convincing its traditional Malay base to back a former rival, potentially risking voter apathy or even defection to opposition parties.
While UMNO can undoubtedly deliver some crucial Malay votes—as evidenced by the increase in Malay support for the DAP in the Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election—the cornerstone of PH’s electoral strategy in Sungai Bakap must be the mobilisation of its core support base. This diverse group includes non-Malay voters—predominantly Chinese and Indian communities—who have historically formed a significant portion of PH’s support. Perhaps even more crucial are the long-time Reformasi advocates, those who have stood with Anwar Ibrahim through his political journey and continue to believe in his vision for reform.
The importance of these core supporters cannot be overstated. In the 2023 state election, PAS secured victory by a slim majority of 1,563 votes. Overcoming this margin requires not just maintaining but energising PH’s traditional base. These voters, particularly the Reformasi advocates, represent more than just numbers; they embody the spirit and ideals that have driven the reform movement in Malaysia for decades.
Mobilising this base won’t be easy. The formation of the unity government, while pragmatic, has led to some disillusionment among staunch reformists who view it as a compromise of principles. Additionally, the perceived slow pace of reforms and some controversial policy decisions have tested the patience of long-time supporters.
Press Freedom and Transparency
Recent developments have cast a shadow over Malaysia’s commitment to press freedom and open discourse. The country’s precipitous drop of 34 places to 107th in the World Press Freedom Index is a stark indicator of this trend. This significant decline has not gone unnoticed by journalists, activists, and citizens alike, many of whom form the core of PH’s support base.
Adding to these concerns, the mysterious removal of Facebook pages belonging to several news organisations has raised alarm bells about potential censorship and interference with independent media. While the exact circumstances remain unclear, opportunistic actors have seized upon the situation to propagate narratives suggesting possible government involvement or pressure on social media platforms, further eroding trust in the administration’s commitment to media freedom.
Malaysia’s position at the top of the list of governments requesting content removal from TikTok has also drawn critical attention. This high rate of removal requests, coupled with broader censorship concerns, paints a picture of an administration increasingly at odds with the principles of free expression that many of its supporters hold dear. The contrast between these actions and the reformist ideals that brought many voters to support PH is stark and potentially damaging.
Perhaps most concerning for advocates of online freedom is the Cabinet’s approval of plans to license and regulate social media. While proponents argue that such measures are necessary to combat misinformation and protect public order, critics view this as a potential tool for government overreach and censorship. The move has sparked debate about the balance between security and liberty, a discussion that cuts to the heart of Malaysia’s democratic aspirations.
Furthermore, the liberal use of the Sedition Act against government critics stands in direct contradiction to PH’s promise to repeal this colonial-era law. Many view this as a betrayal of the coalition’s reform agenda and a continuation of tactics employed by previous administrations to stifle dissent. The failure to abolish the Sedition Act, coupled with its continued application, has disillusioned many longtime supporters who expected a clearer break from past practices.
PH must address the apparent contradictions between its actions and its stated principles. The drop in press freedom rankings, the controversies over social media regulation, and the continued use of the Sedition Act all stand in stark contrast to the coalition’s reformist image. Reconciling these issues with the expectations of its core supporters will be critical in rekindling the passion and trust needed to overcome PAS’s slim majority from the previous election.
Economic Concerns and Cost of Living
Malaysia’s recent plummet in the global competitiveness index to its lowest point since 2020 has raised alarm bells about the country’s economic outlook. This significant drop reflects deeper structural issues within the economy and calls into question the effectiveness of the our economic policies. For voters in Sungai Bakap, many of whom are grappling with day-to-day economic pressures, this decline in competitiveness may translate to concerns about job security, investment, and future prosperity. This is where Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim needs to step up. His ability to articulate a clear and convincing plan for economic reform and revitalisation will be crucial in addressing these anxieties.
Adding to the economic woes is the persistent rise in the cost of living, a issue that hits close to home for many voters. The controversy surrounding potential subsidy cuts for petrol and diesel, as reported by The Straits Times, has further fueled public unease. The government’s handling of this issue, particularly the conflicting statements from ministers Fahmi Fadzil and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who initially denied the report and accused the opposition of spreading misinformation through Singaporean media, has raised questions about transparency and communication. This incident not only highlights the sensitivity of subsidy rationalisations but also underscores the challenge the government faces in managing public expectations while addressing fiscal constraints.
These economic challenges feed into a broader narrative about the government’s priorities and commitment to serving the people. While the administration has discussed removing subsidies and introducing new taxes, there has been less visible progress on promised reforms such as implementing electoral changes or establishing term limits for the Prime Minister. This disparity has led to perceptions among some voters that the Madani politicians may be prioritising their own interests over those of the general public. The lack of tangible progress on key reform promises risks alienating the very base of reform-minded voters that the unity government dreadfully needs in Sungai Bakap.
What is at Stake?
A victory in Sungai Bakap would be a strong endorsement of Anwar’s leadership and policies, suggesting that the administration’s efforts to address these challenges are resonating with voters. Conversely, a loss would highlight areas of dissatisfaction and potentially signal the need for policy adjustments
As the campaign in Sungai Bakap intensifies, the unity government faces the challenge of not just winning votes, but of reaffirming its identity as a force for positive change in Malaysian politics. The outcome of this by-election will not only determine the immediate political landscape but may also set the tone for the coalition’s ability to maintain support in the face of governing realities.
For the voters of Sungai Bakap, and indeed for Malaysia as a whole, this contest represents more than just a local political race – it’s a referendum on the direction of the country and the credibility of its current leadership.
